Geographical Profile - The Laura Smither Murder Case, Friendswood, Texas
The following geographical profile was submitted on May 28, 1997 to the Friendswood, Texas police department at the request of the now former investigator Jay Lewis. The profiling information and investigative strategies were totally ignored by police investigators, even though the profile turned out to be extremely accurate in predicting the general area where the suspect lived at during his crimes. The original profile below was written in May 1997 while I was a Ph.D. student at Liverpool University.
The second geo-forensic analysis is the predicted 'hit' area where the suspected killer (William Reece) lived at (See map below). Of the two likely hypotheses mentioned below, number 2 matched how the crime was carried out. The difficulty in developing a geographical profile in this case was that I had only two crime locations to map rather than a series. Also, Reece lived about 20 miles from where he abducted Laura Smither.
Geo-Forensic Profile
The geographical analysis was performed on a computer program called 'Predator.' It must be kept in mind that unlike in serial murder cases where there are additional locations, the Smither case has only two crime locations to work with.
The geo-forensic analysis got a 'hit' showing a 53% probability that the offender lives in the vicinity of the South Houston area between South Houston and Humble Camp. This would include the areas of East Haven, Genoa, and part of Skyscraper Shadows. Interstate 45 runs through this geographical area. As it turns out the killer lived one mile from my predicted area. Using the zip code investigative method along with a criminal data record search and parolee search William Reece could have been fluffed out.
Due to the nature of where Laura Smither was abducted and her body dump location, it is believed that the killer is a local man. My geographical research on 54 American serial killers (Godwin and Canter, 1997) who killed 540 victims suggests that the victim's abduction site is a better indicator of where the offender lives. However, as was mentioned previously, there are only two crime locations to work with in this particular case. It is highly unlikely that a 'drifter' passing through the area abducted and killed Laura Smither. The reasoning behind this is based on extensive research that suggests that offenders who travel between cities and states killing, dispose their victims at considerable distances from where the victim goes missing. This occurs because the victim's body carries the most evidential clues that could tie the offender to the murder. Therefore, he distances the body from where the victim goes missing. This usually includes distances between the abduction site and body dump site much greater than the 13 miles found in the Smither case.
Another reason that points to a local man is, the time difference between the abduction date (April 3rd) and the date her body was found (April 20th). If we give the Medical Examiner's report that suggests Laura had been in the water for 5 to 6 days a little lead way and up the days to 8 or 9, that still puts Laura unaccounted for at least a week. This suggest that maybe Laura was being held alive or dead during this time within the local area. Killers who roam do not retain the victim's body and then dump them in their comfort zones.
The geographical profile provides two likely hypotheses.
1. The offender abducted Laura and lives in the area between Pearland and Moore Road, and the body dump site was to thwart the police investigation. Or, the offender works in the Pasadena, Texas area.
2. The offender abducted Laura during a visit to the Friendswood area due to the nature of his work. He then disposed of her body en route back to his home base area.
Possible Investigative Steps
Obtain the zip codes for the areas that I have profiled the offender to live in. Check those zip codes against police records for any individuals who may have convictions involving children. The zip code approach is an alternative investigative step.
COPYRIGHT: (2004) All rights reserved. No part of this may be reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system, without permission from Dr. Maurice Godwin.